India Can’t Win a War With Nuclear-Armed Pakistan—But Can Anyone?

After watching South Asia’s strategic patterns for decades, it’s clear that India is walking a dangerous line. Despite its growing defence budget and aggressive military posturing, this writer believes that India cannot win a war against either of its nuclear-armed neighbours: Pakistan or China. The problem isn’t just military; it’s strategic confusion at the top. India has no coherent vision of what it aims to achieve in a military confrontation. It keeps investing heavily in conventional weapons without answering the basic question: to what end? This lack of clarity, combined with a political clout that profits from hostility has left India vulnerable to its own rhetoric. In any confrontation, from something demographically complicated like the Indus Water Treaty to something unacceptable like the violation of Pakistani airspace, Islamabad will term it as an “Act of War” and threaten the nuclear debate almost immediately. Pakistan’s doctrine makes this option explicit, and India knows this. The illusion that India can win a needless war without triggering a nuclear response is not just optimistic. It’s stupid. Rather than continuing down its current path, India would be better off focusing on internal strength and diplomatic engagement. Defence spending for India has so far been largely earmarked for high-end Rafale fighter jets (from France). But no amount of imported hardware will change the core reality: Pakistan is a nuclear power. It cannot be decisively defeated on the battlefield. The game is different. Arguably the other side has a better air force as 2019 stands proof. Yes, conventional weapons might deliver some short-term gains in a limited theatre on the line of control. But the real risk is escalation. In a region where the public narrative has been poisoned by years of warmongering and nationalism, even a minor skirmish could spiral into a conflict that no side can control or afford. India is chasing tactical advantage without considering strategic consequences. For example, it was always looking for a way out of the World Bank-brokered Indus Water Treaty for decades. That’s not a military plan. It’s a gamble. And with nuclear weapons on the table, it’s one the region cannot afford. In this writer’s sick eyes, a war between India and Pakistan would be catastrophic for both and unwinnable by either. India holds a clear advantage in conventional military strength, fielding a much larger army with a few tricks up its sleeves. But Pakistan, being obviously aware of this, has adjusted its strategy to rely on more superior air advantage and, if needed, tactical nuclear weapons as a deterrent. Pakistan might plan small, rapid offensives, not to win outright, but to seize ground early and complicate India’s response. Meanwhile, India likes to strike slow after building a PR narrative. The problem: any such success would almost certainly provoke a nuclear response. Neither side has the ability to win decisively without triggering escalation. The region’s military doctrines are essentially tripwires. A full-scale clash would quickly cross thresholds that both sides would lose control of. Conventional warfare is no longer a path to victory; it’s a countdown to disaster. Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ProPakistani. The content is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional advice. ProPakistani does not endorse any products, services, or opinions mentioned in the article.