Urea Sales Plummet 35% in September 2024

The urea offtake in the country declined by 35 percent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis to 365k tons in September 2024 compared to 564k tons in the same period last year. According to Arif Habib Limited, this decline is primarily due to weak agronomics. On a company-wide basis, urea offtake of FFC and FFBL Group, and FATIMA reduced by 8 percent and 20 percent YoY, clocking in at 231k tons, 69k tons, and 56k tons, respectively. Meanwhile, the sales of EFERT have plunged by 71 percent YoY amid higher urea prices compared to other urea manufacturers. On a MoM basis, urea sales also plummeted by 35 percent. The urea dispatches of FFC and FFBL combined, FATIMA, and EFERT registered a plunge of 8 percent, 48 percent, and 65 percent MoM, respectively. On a cumulative basis, urea sales in 9MCY24 contracted by 8 percent YoY to 4,573k tons. Offtake of FATIMA and EFERT contracted by 23 percent and 11 percent YoY, respectively settling at 621k tons and 1,322k tons, respectively. Meanwhile, urea sales of FFC and FFBL recorded a 3 percent YoY growth, reaching 2,224k tons. DAP sales in September 2024 clocked in at 143k tons, showcasing a 35 percent YoY | 61 percent MoM jump amid pre-buying before the commencement of Rabi season. With this, total offtake during 9MCY24 arrived at 939k tons, down by 6 percent YoY. On a company-specific basis, DAP sales of FFC and FFBL combined augmented by 13 percent YoY | 59 percent MoM, to 86k tons in September 2024. Hence, FFC and FFBL’s DAP offtake in 9MCY24 settled at 618k tons, down by 11 percent YoY. Whereas, EFERT’s DAP dispatches in September 2024 dwindled by 32 percent YoY, while increasing 33 percent MoM to arrive at 15k tons. Consequently, EFERT’s DAP offtake in 9MCY24 depicted an increase of 20 percent YoY, arriving at 196k tons. FATIMA Group’s DAP sales eroded by 59 percent YoY, settling at 2k tons in September 2024. Meanwhile, on a MoM basis, the offtake ascended by 2.3x. Subsequently, FATIMA’s DAP offtake contracted by 37 percent YoY to 37k tons in 9MCY24. By the end of September 2024, the urea inventory stood at 635k tons compared to 406k tons in August 2024. Whereas, DAP inventory settled at 365k tons in September 2024 against 232k tons in August 2024.